My Thoughts for the Week of May 19, 2014

Mike Thomas

Mike Thomas

Not much on the economic calendar this week but what is there will draw a lot of attention. Both existing and new home sales for April, and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting (4/30) are the keys this week. The bond and mortgage markets continue to take their lead by how the stock market trades; traders are moving back and forth between stocks and bonds in the last month. There is an increasing concern now that the economy isn’t as robust as recently thought and the outlook for increased growth has been lowered in the minds of many investors. This year is not going to grow at the 3.0% rate that was the expectation a month ago. Q1 GDP will likely end negative and Q2 outlook is being reduced. This has helped lower interest rates back to around 8 month lows. If this economic trend continues we could see low rates linger around longer than previously expected, perhaps through the end of the year. Keep in mind though any sign of economic strength again in our economy will cause a reversal in rates and move them higher much quicker.

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